Views from the world

Report : Climate Change Weighs on Economy

Richard Harris — 2006-12-21T12:05:52Z

Climate change in the 21st century could bring on a global economic disaster akin to the Great Depression, warns a new report from the British government. The study concludes that it would cost less to take strong action against climate change than to react to changes as they unfold.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has long championed taking steps to combat climate change. He commissioned the latest report a year ago, after hosting the G8 summit of industrial leaders in Scotland.

Monday, Blair said the analysis is the most important report about the future ever published under his leadership. The economic disaster foreseen in the report is due to the likelihood of crop-killing droughts, the spread of tropical disease and coastal flooding as sea level rises.

Most climate change is driven by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, which puts carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The report's analysis finds that to avert potential disaster, greenhouse gas emissions will need to be reduced by a staggering 80 percent.

Sir Nicholas Stern, who is the primary author of the 700-page report, says it makes economic sense to get started now. He says the first step is to convince governments around the world, including the reluctant United States, that they should share a sense of urgency about global warming.

Consequences of Climate Change

Daniel K. Benjamin — 2006-11-19T22:42:11Z

Most discussions of large-scale ecological change simply assume that the consequences will be harmful and that centralized government action is the best way to mitigate that harm. But change brings opportunity, and markets are masters of capitalizing on opportunity. Indeed, recent research suggests that free markets may help transform global climate change into a source of net benefits for humankind (Sohngen and Mendelsohn 1999).

Brent Sohngen and Robert Mendelsohn have woven together analyses from ecology and economics to assess the likely consequences of global climate change over the next sixty years. They use existing models of climate change and ecology to lay out the most likely scenarios for ecological health. They then combine this with an economic model that enables them to estimate the costs and benefits of each scenario.

Prior attempts to assess the economic impact of climate change have focused on "before and after" comparisons. Sohngen and Mendelsohn vastly improve upon this approach by focusing on the time path of adjustment—which, as it turns out, is where most of the action is. During the transition to climate change, some species will be favored and some disfavored. The net economic consequences will depend on whether and how quickly humans take advantage of the changes. Sohngen and Mendelsohn are the first to explicitly demonstrate the crucial importance of this adjustment process.

The centerpiece of their analysis is the timber industry. The authors find that the changes forecasted by the leading climate models will actually yield net economic benefits in this sector, because higher global temperatures will favor trees that have high economic productivity, such as loblolly pine and other southern forest species. And although the consequences of climate change will no doubt vary across nations and sectors, the authors' approach is applicable to all forms of economic activity in the presence of ecological change. Hence, their results provide insights on several key issues.

First, even taking as given the meteorological implications of a specific climate change model and focusing only on the impact on U.S. forests leaves great uncertainty about the economic consequences. For example, forest ecologists disagree over whether climate change will cause widespread dieback (increased mortality) among tree species trapped in the wrong climate, or simply impair the ability of species to regenerate. The economic implications are more severe for dieback, yet no one knows now which scenario is more likely.

Second, the human response to changing circumstances will play a key role in determining the effects of climate change. Consider the possibility of dieback. Landowners can hasten the transition to a new ecosystem and reduce potentially harmful economic impacts by replacing old species with new, more appropriate species. Alternatively, if impaired regeneration is the key effect, the process will take many decades if natural forces are left alone to adjust. By selectively planting adaptable species, landowners can greatly accelerate the transition. Under either scenario, profit-seeking human action confers ecological benefits.

Such action has another effect. Because the species that will be favored by climate change are significantly more productive, net economic benefits will occur.

Sohngen and Mendelsohn find that individuals acting through markets also reduce uncertainty. Specifically, when profit-motivated people take into account the full range of both current and future events, they are able to smooth the behavior of prices over time. This reduces the economic disruption that occurs when prices move in unanticipated ways. For example, if the dieback scenario begins to emerge as likely, appropriately timed salvage operations will dampen the magnitude of price movements. Through the operation of futures markets in timber products, this will also produce credible information that other actors can use.

Overall, the authors find that, for the U.S. timber industry, the sort of global climate change most widely forecasted will actually produce net economic benefits of perhaps $20-$25 billion in present value terms. Of far more importance, however, is that their dynamic analysis illuminates the pivotal role played by the market in adjusting to large-scale ecological change. Sensible adaptation to change of this magnitude, over this sort of time scale, calls for extraordinary foresight about the future. It also requires the ability to react now to events that might—or might not—transpire ten or even fifty years in the future.

Markets provide this foresight and flexibility and give individuals the incentives to react appropriately. Moreover, I would argue, it is this sort of environment in which political and bureaucratic institutions, keyed as they are to incumbent appointees or the next election cycle, perform at their worst. Yet a central finding of the paper by Sohngen and Mendelson is that foresight and flexibility are essential if we are to make the most of whatever lies ahead.

The debate over whether and why global climate change is occurring likely will continue for years to come. The message of the present paper is this : Regardless of the outcome of that debate, and regardless of the future path of the world's ecosystem, it is the market that will enable us to reduce the ecological damage and enhance the economic benefits of what lies ahead.

REFERENCE Sohngen, Brent, and Robert Mendelsohn. 1999. Valuing the Impact of Large-Scale Ecological Change in a Market : The Effect of Climate Change on U.S. Timber.American Economic Review (September) : 686-710.

Agriculture and Food Supply

EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) — 2006-11-19T22:42:10Z

While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions.

The National Research Council (NRC, 2001) concluded:

In the near term, agriculture and forestry are likely to benefit from CO2 fertilization effects and the increased water efficiency of many plants at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Many crop distributions will change, thus requiring significant regional adaptations. Given their resource base, the Assessment concludes that such changes will be costlier for small farmers than for large corporate farms. However, the combination of the geographic and climatic breadth of the United States, possibly augmented by advances in genetics, increases the nation's robustness to climate change. These conclusions depend on the climate scenario, with hotter and drier conditions increasing the potential for declines in both agriculture and forestry. In addition, the response of insects and plant diseases to warming is poorly understood. On the regional scale and in the longer term, there is much more uncertainty.

Climate Factors

Several factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity:

Average temperature increase

Change in rainfall amount and patterns

Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2

Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone

Change in climatic variability and extreme events

Most agricultural impact studies have considered the effects of one or two aspects of climate change on a particular farming activity. Few, however, have considered the full set of anticipated shifts and their impact on agricultural production across the country.

Temperature: An increase in average temperature can 1) lengthen the growing season in regions with a relatively cool spring and fall; 2) adversely affect crops in regions where summer heat already limits production; 3) increase soil evaporation rates, and 4) increase the chances of severe droughts.

Rainfall: Changes in rainfall can affect soil erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. Predicting future changes in rainfall, especially at regional scales, remains a challenge. However, the most widely used global climate models tend to forecast not only changes in the amount of precipitation, but increased intensity of rainfall events (IPCC, 2001).

CO2 fertilization: Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions from human activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of some crops such as wheat, rice and soybeans. CO2 can be one of a number of limiting factors that, when increased, can enhance crop growth. Other limiting factors include water and nutrient availability. The strength of a CO2 fertilization effect, therefore, can either be strengthened or weakened depending on temperature effects, nutrient availability and the harmful effects of tropospheric ozone (IPCC, 2001).

Tropospheric ozone: Higher levels of ground level ozone limit the growth of crops. Since ozone levels in the lower atmosphere are shaped by both emissions and temperature, climate change will most likely increase ozone concentrations. Such changes may offset any beneficial yield effects that result from elevated CO2 levels.

Climatic variability and extreme events: Changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought, floods and hurricanes, remain a key uncertainty about future climate change. Such changes are anticipated by global climate models, but regional changes and the potential affects on agriculture are more difficult to forecast.

Implications for North America

The National Research Council¹⁰ concluded that there may be significant regional transitions associated with shifts in agriculture as a result of climate change (NRC, 2001). Similarly, the IPCC concluded¹¹ that, for North America as a whole (IPCC, 2001):

Food production is projected to benefit from a warmer climate, but there probably will be strong regional effects, with some areas in North America suffering significant loss of comparative advantage to other regions.

There is potential for increased drought in the U.S. Great Plains/Canadian Prairies and opportunities for a limited northward shift of production areas in Canada.

Modeled yield results that include the effects of increased CO2 are substantially different from those that do not account for such effects. However, such studies generally also assume sufficient water and nutrients to support the additional plant growth, which may be more heavily constrained by climatic changes.

Economic studies that include farm and agricultural market-level adjustments (e.g., behavioral, economic, and institutional) indicate that the negative effects of climate change on agriculture have probably been overestimated by studies that do not account for these adjustments.

Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S. and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climatic conditions but also on changes in agriculture's ability to be productive and adapt through future changes in technology, demand for food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and change.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has commissioned a federal study on the potential effects of climate change on agriculture. The CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3¹² will address the following questions:

What factors influencing agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in the United States are sensitive to climate and climate change?

How could changes in climate exacerbate or ameliorate stresses on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity?

What are the indicators of these stresses?

What current and potential observation systems could be used to monitor these indicators?

Can observation systems detect changes in agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity that are caused by climate change, as opposed to being driven by other causal activities?

References

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability¹³ . Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [McCarthy, James J., Canziani, Osvaldo F., Leary, Neil A., Dokken, David J., and White, Kasey S. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1032pp.

National Research Council (NRC), 2001. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions¹⁴. National Academy Press, Washington, DC

Climate Change to Spark Economic Depression

Glen Barry — 2006-11-19T22:42:09Z

Given overwhelming and robust evidence, the scientific debate on global warming is now closed and it is time for action which will require going beyond science to policy and advocacy formulation. A major new report [more | more2 | more3] by chief British government and former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern finds that the benefits of determined worldwide steps to tackle climate change far outweigh the costs, and that failure to make these investments will lead to "economic upheaval on the scale of the 1930s Depression", costing "more than both world wars" while rendering "swathes of the planet uninhabitable" and turning "200 million people into refugees". This is not alarmist doomsdayism - it is the best policy predictions based upon the current science. There are many ways to know climate change, science being important but just one of them. The report is the best policy document to date regarding likely apocalyptic social and economic outcomes of doing nothing to address the global ecological crises of which climate change is part and paramount.

"The chance to keep greenhouse gases at a level which scientists say should avoid the worst effects of climate change 'is already almost out of reach... the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs'." The report estimates stabilising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will cost about one per cent of annual global output by 2050. But if the world does nothing, it could cut global consumption per person by between five and 20 per cent. He suggested rich nations take responsibility for emissions cuts of 60-80 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050. Further, a global carbon price was needed, affixing a clear cost to pollution, and this could be created through tax [EI's carbon tax plan], trading or regulation. And with only perhaps a decade to act with force, it is imperative that a Kyoto successor agreement is negotiated [more] as early as next year.

China and climate change : the role of the energy sector

Pan Jiahua — 2006-11-19T22:42:07Z

Introduction

Since the end of the 1980s, when climate change was brought to the global political agenda, China has gone from generating a surplus of energy to becoming an importer of oil. The change is a symptom of a rapidly industrialising nation and comes hand-in-hand with many of the signs of a nation already suffering from the effects of climate change.

Recent figures show that China is the second most important emitter of greenhouse gasses in the world, after the United States. Research shows that its population and environment are likely to suffer the effects of extreme weather events made more frequent by climate change, that rising temperatures and changing rainfall will affect food production, and that energy consumption — a major source of emissions — will continue to rise over the coming decades.

Yet China, as a developing nation, is not bound to limit its emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, and will not do so at the expense of its development. The government says developed nations must bear the responsibility for historical rises in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Despite this, the Chinese government is aware of the complexities and effects of climate change. Although its primary motivation is not to align itself with international climate change policy, it is adopting measures to diversify its sources of energy and to increase energy efficiency, which could slow the steep rise of its emissions.

Effects of climate change in China

Early in 2005, a comprehensive assessment of environmental and climate change in China showed that the effects of climate change in China are similar to those in the rest of the world (Qin et al, 2005). During the past century, the average temperature in China increased by 0.6-0.8 degrees Celsius. In the past 50 years, sea levels rose by between 1-2.5 millimetres each year.

Climate change will make China more vulnerable to damage caused by rising sea levels, drought, flooding, tropical cyclones, sand storms, and heat waves. Although a warmer climate will increase the amount of land available for farming, extreme weather could reduce agricultural yield by ten per cent. Already, in 2004 alone, drought and floods damaged more than 37 million hectares of arable crops, leaving more than four million of them barren.

China has several climatic zones and a varied physical environment. North-west China is a largely arid and semi-arid, fragile environment that is highly vulnerable to climate change. In north-east China, a warmer climate might increase agricultural production, but extreme weather events, such as storms and flooding, would probably cause serious damage.

In central and eastern China, winters are cold and summers are hot. The building industry in these regions is using more and more energy. Coastal areas in the south and east are densely populated, and a rise in sea levels could greatly damage the economically dynamic and prosperous Zhujiang and Yangtze deltas.

The challenges for China to reduce emissions

China is the largest emitter in the world of greenhouse gases after the United States. It accounts for just over one-seventh of the world's emissions (14.7 per cent in 2000; in comparison, the United States emitted 20.6 per cent of global emissions in the same year). According to researchers at the US-based Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, China is likely to be the number one emitter in twenty years (Baumert and Pershing, 2004).

Patterns of energy consumption

China's booming industry and its corresponding burst in energy consumption and rapid urbanisation — and the fact that it generates most of its energy by burning coal — are largely responsible for its rapidly climbing greenhouse gas emissions. After all, in only half a century, China has moved from being a society based on farming, to one where half of its output comes from industry.

In 1960, China's commercial sector consumed 302 million tonnes of coal equivalent (1 tce corresponds to 7,500 kilowatt hours). By 1980, this figure had doubled. By 2000, it had reached 1.3 billion tce. In 2004, the figure rocketed to 1.97 billion tce, surpassing the country's energy production of 1.85 billion. The same year, China consumed 290 million tonnes of oil, but produced only 175 million.

In just 11 years, from 1993-2004, China has gone from being one of the world's largest exporters of coal to having to import oil in order to meet its energy needs.

Economic development is pushing China's greenhouse gas emissions into realms more often associated with developed nations. Now a 'developing giant' with a surging economy, China is finding that energy security and pollution problems dominate its choices in how to take that development forward.

Energy demand will continue to rise

Between 1980 and 2000, the Chinese economy more than quadrupled and energy consumption doubled. In 2000, the government set a target to quadruple its gross domestic product (GDP) again by 2020.

The Chinese Energy Research Institute projected that this target, combined with advances in technology and renewable energies, would take energy demand to 1.9 billion tce by 2010, and to about 2.8 billion tce by 2020 (Zhou et al, 2003). In reality, energy consumption passed the 2010 target in 2004 — a whole six years early.

Firmly in support of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities'

China has consistently emphasised that industrialised nations must be held responsible for past greenhouse gas emissions. It also emphasises that developing countries need to increase their own emissions, to meet the needs of development. Developed countries, China maintains, should take the lead in reducing emissions, and help developing countries limit theirs by transferring technology and funds to them.

When the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in 1997, China officially stated that it would not consider limiting greenhouse gas emissions until it reached a “medium level of development”. It implied that this meant an annual income of about US$5,000 per person, which would be reached around the middle of the twenty-first century.

Eight years on, the government remains unlikely to make any commitments to limit its emissions, although it has been more flexible in participating in international efforts to mitigate climate change. These include cooperating on the technological development of renewable energies, as well as on carbon capture and storage.

In addition, China has participated in the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, which helps developing countries run projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions using investments from developed nations.

China's international climate change policy: historical perspective

China has never denied the threat of climate change. From the 1980s, it treated climate change as a scientific issue, giving the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) the responsibility of advising the government on policy options.

At the international level, China saw climate change negotiations as an integral part of its foreign policy, and a terrain on which it, and other developing countries, would need to protect development rights and opportunities.

After the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in 1997, the Chinese government shifted responsibility for climate change policy from the CMA to the more powerful State Development and Planning Commission (now the National Development and Reform Commission). The move indicated a shift in perspective: for China, climate change had become predominantly a development issue.

Despite this, China has responded positively to international initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon capture and renewable energy development. In the forthcoming post-Kyoto negotiations, China is likely to be more flexible and open to international cooperation: the expression 'medium level development' has not been mentioned again. Although China labels itself a developing country, the image it wishes to cultivate — of a large and responsible country — will probably make it more flexible in international negotiations.

Diversify, diversify, diversify

Despite refusing to reduce emissions in international negotiations, at home China has been making continuing and increasing efforts to diversify its energy sources and increase energy efficiency. However, this is not primarily because China wants to comply with global climate change policy. Instead the reasons are social and economic: China is concerned about secure energy supplies and pollution control.

Nonetheless, the results are consistent with international climate change policy. China is actively promoting a variety of ways of generating energy, and this means investigating, investing in, and adopting clean and renewable sources of energy, such as hydropower, nuclear, solar, wind, and biomass.

South-west China, for instance, is expected to be able to generate more than 40 gigawatts of hydropower — enough to power dozens of cities with populations of half a million — by 2020. Six regional nuclear power plants are being built or have recently been completed, each capable of generating energy on the scale of gigawatts.

In February 2005, the government adopted the Renewable Energy Law, providing financial incentives to those developing wind, solar and bio-energy. In rural areas, each year the government allocates ten billion yuan (US$1.25 billion) to subsidise the use of biogas by rural households. And the recently announced National Plan for Medium and Long Term Scientific and Technological Development prioritises the development of renewable energies.

China's 'five-year plans' set targets for saving energy. The National Development and Reform Commission has laid out ten projects to save 240 million tce during the 'eleventh five year plan', from 2006-2010.

Looking ahead

As post-Kyoto negotiations evolve, many feel that China will have to consider committing to reducing emissions after 2012. Given the 76 million rural people living in extreme poverty in China, with average income levels below US$110 in 2004, there is still a long way for China to go on its path to development. But the size and scale of industrialisation and urbanisation in China are unprecedented.

In this context, it is in China's interest to help mitigate the effects of climate change both internationally and domestically. Cooperating will help China become more energy efficient and use more energy from renewable resources. Spurred on by this, China is more likely to participate in global initiatives on energy efficiency, development of renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage, than to commit to reducing its emissions.

References

Baumert, Kevin and Jothasan Pershing, 2004. Climate Data: insights and observations. Pew Centre on Global Climate Change. Washington DC.

CSB (China Statistical Bureau), 2005. Statistical Bulletin of the National Economy and Social Development, 2004. 28 February 2005. http://www.stats.gov.cn/ tjgb/ndtjgb/gqndtjgb/t20050228-402231854.htm.

GOC (Government of China), 2004. Initial National Communication on Climate Change. China Planning Publishing Press. Beijing.

NDRC (National Development and Reform Commissions) 2004. Interim CDM Measures. http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/cdm.

Liu, Jiang. 2005. Speech at the High Level Seminar on Celebrating Kyoto Protocol Coming into Force. Beijing, 16 Feb. 2005. http://ccchina.gov.cn/source/aa/

Qin, Dahe, ChenYiyu, and Li Xueyong (editors), 2005. Climate and Environmental Change in China (two volumes). China Science Press (in Chinese), Beijing.

Zhou, D., Dai, Y. Yi, C., Guo, Y. and Zhu, Y.: 2003, China's Sustainable Energy Scenarios in 2020, China Environmental Science Press, Beijing, August 2003

Climate Change : The Issues

Timothy Bancroft-Hinchey — 2006-11-19T22:42:05Z

The question of climate change and its consequences is no mere supposition or flight of fantasy by wannabe scientists – it is a documented phenomenon, a hard scientific fact, supported by years of research by the scientific community's most reputable bodies and it has far-reaching and very serious consequences for the future of humanity.

While it is easy for some to play down the hype, deriding the facts because implementation of measures would cost a lot, the fact remains that the situation could not be more serious and if we do not act now, our generation will be held to ransom by history as the one which could have taken steps to save the planet but selfishly decided to do nothing and pass the buck to our grandchildren, when it may already be too late.

Studies made taking the Industrial Revolution as a starting point, indicate that rising temperatures are a direct result of human activity, with GEG (Greenhouse Effect Gases) taking an increasing toll on an ever more vulnerable environment. GEG make the planet warmer and the knock-on effects are far-reaching.

While everyone speculates about coastal flooding from the rising sea waters due to melting ice caps (a possibility, but probably far down the line), other more direct effects with more dire results could be developing before our eyes.

The first direct consequence of even a small rise in temperature is in the area of public health – increased cases of food poisoning, bacteriological infections, UV-light related deaths, skin cancers, cataracts, heart and respiratory failure ; increase in diseases formerly contained in restricted areas, such as malaria, cholera, dengue, Lyme Disease, yellow fever and other diseases which have so far been contained in a certain geographical area.

Higher temperatures mean more flood and drought cycles and more devastating storms. Higher temperatures cause damage to crops and this, together with flooding, has greater effects on communities who can least afford the consequences, namely the poorer countries.

As habitats change, wild animals are affected, along with plant life. The first victims will be vulnerable species few have heard of, yet the list will grow and grow, and at the top of the list is the ultimate victim, Mankind. The Golden Toad of Costa Rica has already been exterminated and better known species in extreme danger are the polar bear, seals, walruses, penguins and plankton. And after the plankton come the whales.

Not only do our GEG emissions damage the environment, we are also performing actions which compound the problems. Deforestation is one example. Forests which used to soak up rainwaters are no longer there, the result being that floodwaters pour down hillsides, washing away topsoil, silting up rivers miles downstream and causing floods on fluvial plains. These are among the main points to be discussed in Nairobi.

The point facing us all today is that we are all brothers living around a common lake – the sea. The sooner we all realise this and implement policies which create meaningful conditions for a lasting environment for all, the better. The scientific community believes that there is still time, but action must be taken now.

Global Climate Change

U. S. Department of Agriculture — 2006-11-19T22:42:03Z

Overview

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases have increased substantially since pre-industrial times, and are expected to continue their steep rate of increase if current emission patterns continue. The major human source of greenhouse gas emissions is burning fossil fuels. ERS research focuses on how changes in global climate may affect both U.S. and world agricultural production, and investigates those agricultural practices—such as conservation tillage or winter cover crops—that can mitigate climate change by reducing emissions or increasing carbon sequestration.

Fluctuations of CO2 and temperature have roughly mirrored each other over the last 160,000 years. Over the last century, the Earth has warmed about 1° F; the 1995 Report of the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there is a discernible human influence on global climate through greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere. ERS research on climate change has two major components: the longrun impacts of greenhouse gas accumulation on agriculture throughout the world, and the economics of options for agriculture to reduce greenhouse gas accumulation.

Longrun Impacts on Agriculture

Farming occurs in those areas where potential agricultural productivity is consistently high. Agricultural productivity, in turn, depends on climate's influence on basic growing conditions such as air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture. Another factor is the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which affects crop productivity through its influence on water use and photosynthesis. Changes in climate and atmospheric concentrations of CO2, therefore, would have longrun impacts on the world's ability to produce agricultural commodities.

Farmers would respond to these changes in agricultural possibilities by adopting alternative production systems (such as changing crop and livestock varieties, employing irrigation, etc.) and by expanding (or abandoning) agricultural lands. Agricultural land could expand either in areas currently suitable for agricultural production or into areas that are currently unsuitable but that develop productive possibilities under global climate change. But adaptations would not end there. The agricultural modifications would generate additional responses from producers in other sectors as well as from domestic and foreign consumers.

ERS's research on the longrun economic impacts accounts for both the immediate effects on agricultural possibilities and the subsequent economic responses, particularly in the agriculture sector. The scope of ERS's research is also global in order to examine the distribution of economic impacts round the world and its effects on international trade. Recent analyses of projected increases in global temperature of 2.8 to 5.2°C (5.0 to 9.4°F) indicate that climate change would likely inhibit world agricultural production by the end of the 21st century. Impacts on U.S. agricultural production, however, are indeterminant. Other analyses, however, indicate that the direct growth-promoting effects on crops generated by a 225-ppmv (parts per million by volume) increase in atmospheric CO2 would likely boost world and U.S. agricultural production. Both sets of analyses are limited in one or more crucial ways. Hence, the net effects of greenhouse gas emissions on agriculture remain uncertain.

Mitigation Options in Agriculture

The three major greenhouse gases emitted by agriculture are carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. U.S. agriculture represents a small source of carbon emissions, but emits nearly three-quarters of U.S. nitrous oxide emissions and about a third of methane emissions. Mitigation options include better management of nitrogen fertilizers (nitrous oxide) and livestock waste (methane). A number of farm management practices could remove carbon from the atmosphere and incorporate it into soils, thereby creating a carbon “sink.”

The international community is developing a system of commitments toward emission reductions, linked with a series of flexibility instruments to allow trades among parties. The economic impact on the agricultural sector of any treaty would depend upon resolution of a number of outstanding issues in the international negotiations and the mix of domestic policies chosen to implement the treaty.

Features

Economics of Sequestering Carbon in the U.S. Agricultural Sector—Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases can be reduced by withdrawing carbon from the atmosphere and sequestering it in soils and biomass. This report analyzes the performance of alternative incentive designs and payment levels if farmers were paid to adopt land uses and management practices that raise soil carbon levels. Amber Waves summary article (March 2004).

Economic Impacts of Carbon Charges on U.S. Agriculture—Evaluates the farm sector impacts that would result from implementing a system of carbon-based charges on energy-intensive inputs. The analysis emphasizes production costs, crop acreage, commodity prices, input use, farm income, and farm welfare. The charges considered—$14, $100, and $200 per metric ton of carbon—were developed from the literature and are consistent with reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels, minus 7 percent, by 2010 under different levels of carbon trading and developing country participation. Impacts are relatively modest for a charge of $14 per mt. Producer and consumer surplus decline less than 0.5 percent relative to baseline conditions, and price increases and production declines across crop and livestock commodities are all less than 1 percent. As the carbon charge increases, farm sector impacts become more pronounced and the significance of the aggregate effect becomes more subjective. Climatic Change (9/01)

Related Briefing Rooms

Conservation and Environmental Policy
Global Resources and Productivity

Questions and Answers

Important research questions and answers on issues of climate change impacts, agriculture's role, and policies to reduce global climate change.

U.S. Market Consequences of Global Climate Change

Dale W. Jorgenson, Richard J. Goettle, Brian H. Hurd, Joel B. Smith, et al — 2006-11-19T22:41:59Z

Prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change (April 2004)
By :
Dale W. Jorgenson, Harvard University
Richard J. Goettle, Northeastern University
Brian H. Hurd, New Mexico State University
Joel B. Smith, et al, Stratus Consulting, Inc.

Click here to read the report

Click here to read Appendix A

Click here to read Appendix B

Guidance Climate change : consequences for flora and fauna

Environmental Data Compendium — 2006-11-19T22:41:58Z

Introduction

The Netherlands is becoming warmer as a result of climate change, and because of this various plant and animal species are invading the country from warmer, more southerly areas. Most of the new arrivals in the last century are from the south ; few species have arrived from the north.

In various species groups there are good examples of southern species that are increasing : the wasp spider, the oak processionary moth, the crimped gill fungus, and various lichen species. Marine species from further south are also more frequent in Dutch coastal waters, such as the small hermit crab, the sea squirt Didemnum lahillei, the scaldfish and the lesser weever fish.

As well as changes in species distribution, there has also been a shift in the growing and flowering seasons for plants and in the breeding season for birds. This could impact on numbers of breeding birds, especially in the species that overwinter in Africa, such as the pied flycatcher.

Not all of the increases in southern species are attributable to climate change. Some of the newcomers prefer towns and industrial areas because these built-up habitats have a warmer climate than the surrounding countryside.

Lichens and climate change

As a result of climate change, lichen species from southern Europe that prefer warmer climates are becoming more common in the Netherlands.

Trends

Since 1989 there has been an increase in the lichen species that prefer warm climates, and a decrease in the lichen species associated with cool conditions. Climate change is thought to be responsible for this. No such changes were observed between 1979 and 1989.

Recent changes in species composition have been reinforced by ammonia pollution, because proportionally more of the northern species do not tolerate high levels of nitrogen and therefore decline faster.

Fish and climate change

The increase in the scaldfish and lesser weever fish along the Dutch coast is possibly a result of the warmer climate in the Netherlands.

Trends in the scaldfish

The scaldfish is found from the Mediterranean up to the south of Norway. Though scarce in Dutch coastal waters, catches of this species have increased considerably in the last 10 years. This could be a result of the warmer climate.

The scaldfish is a slow-growing flatfish. A fish 14 cm long could be 13 years old. The diet of this species consists primarily of crustaceans and worms, and also small fish such as black goby.

Trends in the lesser weever fish

Catches of the lesser weever fish in Dutch coastal waters have also increased considerably in the last 10 years. This species is found from the Mediterranean as far as the centre of Danish waters. Its increase could also be the result of a warmer climate.

The lesser weever fish is mostly found on sandy seabeds. Individual fish grow to about 18 cm long by their sixth year. The lesser weever fish buries itself in the sandy seabed, so that only its eyes protrude above the surface. Its diet consists mainly of black goby.

Migrants to Africa and climate change

Climate change can impact on the migratory birds that breed in the Netherlands and overwinter in Africa.

Trends in birds migrating to West Africa

The warmer Dutch springs can disrupt the breeding behaviour of migratory birds, such as the pied flycatcher. This can cause the species to decline.

On average, however, no decline has yet been observed in the group of birds that migrate to West Africa. In fact, more species in this group are increasing in number than are declining. Many species in the group (including the sedge warbler and whitethroat) have benefited from the higher rainfall experienced in West Africa south of the Sahara in the last fifteen years. The only species that have declined in numbers are the great reed warbler, black-tailed godwit and wheatear, but this is more to do with a deterioration of the breeding areas in the Netherlands than with the warmer springs.

Trends in birds migrating to elsewhere in Africa

The species that overwinter in east, central and southern Africa have declined as a group since 1990. Examples are the wood warbler, house martin, icterine warbler and turtle dove. The reason for their decline is unknown, but there are no indications that cimate change plays a role.

* West Africa : bluethroat (increase), pied flycatcher (stable), tree pipit (increase), marsh warbler (stable), marsh harrier (increase), whitethroat (increase), great reed warbler (decrease), Sandwich tern (increase), black-tailed godwit (decrease), reed warbler (increase), avocet (stable), spoonbill (increase), sand martin (increase), purple heron (increase), sedge warbler (increase), grasshopper warbler (increase), wheatear (decrease), garden warbler (stable), common tern (stable), honey buzzard (stable), garganey (stable) and black tern (stable). * East, central and southern Africa : swallow (decrease), hobby (stable), lesser whitethroat (increase), willow warbler (stable), wood warbler (decrease), redstart (stable), swift (no clear trend), red-backed shrike (stable), spotted flycatcher (decrease), house martin (decrease), cuckoo (decrease), nightingale (increase), whinchat (decrease), Savi's warbler (increase), icterine warbler (decrease), golden oriole (stable) and turtle dove (decrease).

Climate Change and Winter Sports : Environmental and Economic Threats

Bruno Abegg, Rolf Bürki, Hans Elsasser — 2006-11-19T22:41:56Z

1. Introduction

For many alpine areas winter sports are the most important source of income, and snow-reliability is one of the key elements of the touristic offers. Skiing and snowboarding, but also snow related sports such as cross-country skiing or snow hiking depend on enough snow.

Mountain areas are sensitive to climate change. Implications of climate change can be seen, for example, in less snow, receding glaciers, melting permafrost and more extreme events like landslides. Furthermore, climate change will shift mountain flora and fauna. Second order impacts will occur in mountain agriculture, mountain hydropower and, of course, mountain tourism. However, climate change is a severe threat to snow related sports such as skiing, snowboarding and cross-country skiing. Lower earnings in winter tourism will reinforce economic disparities between urban areas and the less developed alpine regions. Additionally, the ski tourism industry will “climb” up the mountains to reach snow reliable areas at high altitude. This process will lead to a concentration of winter sport activities, and will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains.

Clearly, it should be emphasised that climate is only one of many factors influencing snow tourism. However, less snow threatens the winter tourism industry in mountain areas. Good snow conditions are a necessity, although that is not the only prerequisite for a financially viable mountain cableway company. Without enough snow, however, profitable ski tourism will scarcely be possible. Mountains without snow are like summer without a sea. Apart from having sufficient snow at the right time  and particularly during the Christmas/New Year holidays  a key role is also played by the weather conditions (predominantly at the weekends). Since weekend and day guests are planning their trips at ever-shorter notice, it is not just the actual weather conditions that are a growing factor of influence, but the weather forecasts too.

Climate impact research on the winter tourism industry has been undertaken in various countries such as Canada, the U.S.A., Australia, New Zealand, Austria, Switzerland, France and the U.K. (see Koenig 1998 or Buerki 2000 for an overview). All these studies show severe implications for the winter tourism industry if climate change were to occur. While some regions may be able to maintain their winter tourism with suitable, but expensive adaptation strategies (e.g. artificial snowmaking), others would lose their winter tourism industry due to a diminishing snow pack.

Global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 - 1°C over the last 100 years (IPCC 2001). The years at the end of the nineties were the warmest over the last centuries. Global temperature will increase in the future. Of course, there are a lot of uncertainties and the range of scenarios of the future warming is quite big. However, IPCC estimates a temperature increase of 1.4 to 5.8° until 2100. Global warming will be stronger on land surface, the northern hemisphere and in winter : that is the location and the season of mountain winter tourism.

2. Climate change and potential impacts on winter tourism

Snow

The financial viability of the winter tourism industry depends on sufficient snow conditions. It was the winters with little snow at the end of the Eighties (1987/88 – 1989/90) that caused a stir in the Alps. The big difference to the situations at earlier periods with little snow is that the capital intensity of ski tourism had considerably increased. However, the most important link between climate change and mountain tourism is less snow and, as a consequence, less earnings in ski tourism.

Glaciers

There is a measured increase in the retreat of glaciers all over the world. Since 1850, Swiss Glaciers have lost more than a quarter of their surface. In 2030, 20 to 70% of Swiss glaciers will have disappeared. This is not only a severe lost of mountain aesthetic, but also a problem for ski slopes on glaciers in winter and summer skiing.

Permafrost

Global warming increases melting of permafrost and makes many mountain areas vulnerable to landslides. Mountain cableway stations, lift masts and other buildings in permafrost soil become instable. To brace and to anchor such buildings in melting permafrost-soils causes high costs. However, warming in mountain areas also makes hiking and climbing more dangerous due to increasing rockfall.

Changing weather conditions

On the one hand, the future climate will be warmer, on the other hand, the future climate will change its pattern. More precipitation or a higher fog level will lead to new conditions for mountain summer tourism such as hiking, trekking or biking. More and stronger extreme events are another threat for tourism activities and tourism infrastructure. Besides, with warmer winter temperatures ice fishing would be increasingly impossible.

3. Climate change and snow-deficient winters

Results from the Alps

The economy in alpine regions is highly dependent on tourism. If the assumptions of the impacts of climate change hold true, snow cover in the Alps will diminish which will, in turn, jeopardise the tourism industry. The crucial factor for the long-term survival of mountain cableway companies is the frequency and regularity of winters with good snow conditions, or, put the other way round, the number of snow-deficient winters that can be withstood. It is not possible to give a definitive answer here, since the economic situation of the companies varies too much. The experience acquired by various ski resorts, however, shows that a ski resort can be considered snow-reliable if, in 7 out of 10 winters, a sufficient snow covering of at least 30 to 50 cm is available for ski sport on at least 100 days between December 1 and April 15.

Today, 85% of Switzerland's 230 ski resorts can be considered to be snow-reliable (tab. 1). However, even today a lot of ski resorts in the Prealps are not snow-reliable. If the line of snow-reliability were to rise to 1'500 m as a result of climate change (year 2030 – 2050), the number of snow-reliable ski resorts would drop to 63%. The Jura, Eastern and Central Switzerland, Ticino, and the Alps in the cantons of Vaud and Fribourg will be particularly jeopardised by global warming. The ski regions of Valais and the Grisons will experience virtually no major problems, since the mean altitude of the cableway terminals in these regions is higher than 2500 m above sea level. If the line of snow-reliability were to rise to 1800 m, which is a possible scenario, there would be a further serious deterioration in conditions : only 44% of skiing regions could be designated as snow-reliable. Even in the cantons of Grisons and Valais, approximately a quarter of the ski resorts would no longer be snow-reliable.

Table 1 : Snow-reliability of Swiss ski resorts (Buerki 2000)

A survey among tourists shows, that skiers will respond flexibly to changing snow conditions. During a period of snow-poor seasons, as expected more often under a changing climate, 49% of the skiers would change to a ski resort that is more snow-reliable. 32 % of the skiers would ski less often. Although only 4% of the respondents would give up skiing, it can be concluded that climate change would have serious impacts on the number of skier days. The most vulnerable ski resorts in the lower regions of the Alps have to deal with a significant decrease of younger guests, day tourists and novice skiers, which is exactly the target group of these resorts (Buerki 2000).

The potential annual costs of climate change in Switzerland can be estimated at CHF 2.3 to 3.2 billion (US $ 1.5 to 2.1 billion) by the year 2050, which is 0.6 to 0.8% of the Swiss gross national product for 1995. CHF 1.8 to 2.3 billion (US $ 1.2 to 1.6 billion) would be accounted for by tourism. Even if there are many reservations that can be voiced regarding this calculation, it nevertheless shows that tourism is the economic sector that would be most affected by climate change in Switzerland and that this influence is of an order of magnitude that cannot be neglected.

Climate change will lead to a new pattern of favoured and disadvantaged ski tourism regions. If all other influencing factors remain the same, snow related

sports would concentrate in the high-altitude areas that are snow-reliable in the future too. Ski resorts at lower altitudes will withdraw from the market sooner or later because of the lack of snow. The only areas with good prospects will be those with transport facilities that provide access to altitudes higher than 2000 m. The regions at higher altitudes may experience greater demand, prompting a further expansion in quantitative terms. The pressure on ecologically sensitive high-mountain regions will increase.

The call for ski resorts with snow-reliability is the main argument for the current boom in concept studies to open up high mountain regions,

or, in other words, climate change is the reason for opening up high mountain regions to tourism. In Switzerland more than 100 projects exist to extend ski sport infrastructure, a lot of them sponsored by subsidies. In the Alps as a whole, there are at least 300 projects, including, for example, new lifts, snow machines (including water reservoirs) and flattened slopes.

The impacts of climate change on winter tourism may be even more severe in countries such as Germany (for example resorts in the Black Forest area or in Allgaeu) and Austria, due to the lower altitudes of their ski resorts. The famous tourist town of Kitzbuehel, for example, lies at the low altitude of 760 m. In Austria, the present snow line will rise 200 to 300 metres higher with climatic change in the next 30 to 50 years. Many mountain villages, above all in the central and eastern parts of Austria, will lose their winter tourist industry because of climate change (Breiling & Charamza 1999). In Italy, half of the winter sport villages are below 1,300 metres. Some of these are already facing major problems with snow cover. In future, there will only be a few winters with a winter atmosphere – that means with snow – in these ski resorts. If the altitude for snow reliability rises to 1,500m because of climatic change, winter sports would only be possible in the higher zones of the ski areas and many resorts would have no economic viability in the future.

However, the winter of 1998/99, in particular, February 1999, showed that the possibility of winters with a great deal of snow cannot be excluded in the future. In a study of the ‘avalanche winter' of 1999, the direct losses incurred by mountain cable-ways as a result of avalanches and the large quantities of snow were estimated at CHF 15 million (US $ 10 million). In total, 36 facilities were damaged, including 20 ski-lifts, 11 chair-lifts, 4 cable railways and 1 funicular. The mountain railway companies had to spend an extra 77% on snow clearing, compared with previous years. Roughly 25% more than in normal winters was spent on securing the ski slopes. All in all, the avalanche winter of 1999 probably caused losses in excess of CHF 200 million (US $ 130 million), the major portion of these having been indirect losses (SLF 2000).

Results from Australia

In order to find out how climate change may influence the snow-reliability of Australia's ski fields, impacts of different regional climate scenarios on the number of days with snow-cover were examined (Koenig 1998, tab. 2). Assuming the best-case scenario, all but one resort match the ‘60 days rule' in 2030. Assuming the worst-case scenario for 2030, a financially viable ski operation would only be possible in Charlotte Pass, but it would not be possible in three resorts at lower altitudes. At all other resorts, ski operation would concentrate on the highest areas of today's ski fields, while top to bottom skiing would not be possible in most resorts. With the worst case scenario in 2070 none of today's ski resorts would be operating a profitable ski industry.

However, a concentration of the ski industry to the highest ski fields is expected due to climate change. Assuming today's snowmaking technology, the lower resorts would have to close down. In higher ski fields, where skiing would concentrate, expensive snowmaking might be intensified and environmental problems (waste water, rubbish) are likely to increase. This would undoubtedly result in conflicts with both conservation groups and the Australian Alpine National Parks.

Table 2 : Snow-reliability of Australian ski resorts (Koenig 1998)

(+) indicates that the prerequisite in terms of natural snow-cover duration for a financially viable ski operation (60 days rule) are accomplished.

( ?) indicates that the prerequisite in terms of natural snow-cover duration for a financially viable ski operation are questionable.

(-) indicates that the prerequisite in terms of natural snow-cover duration for a financially viable ski operation are not accomplished.

∆T = change of temperature ; ∆P = change of precipitation

Results from Canada

The impacts of climate change in Australia, Canada and the U.S.A. may be not as severe as in Europe because of the high level of artificial snowmaking. Recognising that snowmaking is an integral component of the ski industry the results indicate that ski areas could remain operational in a warmer climate, particularly within existing business planning and investment time horizons (into the 2020s) (Scott et al. 2003). The economic impact of additional snowmaking requirements remains an important uncertainty. Under climate change scenarios and current snowmaking technology, the average ski season at the case study ski area in Canada (Lakelands tourism region) was projected to reduce by 0-16% in the 2020s, 7-32% in the 2050s and 11-50% in the 2080s. Without snowmaking the season would decline substantially by 37 – 57% in the 2050s.

Concurrent with the projected ski season losses, the estimated amount of snowmaking required increased by 36-144% in the scenarios for the 2020s. Required snowmaking amounts increased by 48-187% in the scenarios for the 2050s. The ability of individual ski areas to absorb additional snowmaking costs may be the crucial factor in remaining economically viable.

4. Adaptations of tourism representatives

The tourism representatives at a political, entrepreneurial, operational and organisational level are not sitting back idly contemplating the consequences of a climate change. They are adapting right now in the expectation of climate change. The experiences with snow-deficient winters have shown them that the climate does not determine their economic activities, but, instead, constitutes a key resource and framework condition. The results of a focus group study among tourism representatives in Switzerland can be summed up as follows.

Climate change has been recognised as a problem for winter tourism. Those responsible for tourism know that what they can offer is highly dependent on snow and that they are at risk from snow-deficient winters. They are familiar with the potential consequences of climate change for winter tourism. While achieving snow-reliability constitutes a central topic, potential climatic change is seen as being only of relatively minor importance.

Climate change is not regarded as a catastrophe for winter tourism. The tourism representatives think that climatic change is presented in a highly exaggerated form by the media  and also in science and politics. Although climate change could intensify the problems that already exist in ski areas at lower altitudes and speed up structural changes in the sector, the majority of ski resorts at medium and high altitudes, however, would scarcely be affected.

Climate change is already affecting the strategies and plans of the winter sport resorts today. The discussions held in the focus groups clearly revealed an ambivalent relationship to climate change. On the one hand, the representatives strongly distrust the information disseminated about climate change and play down its potential consequences, but on the other hand, they use climate change to legitimate forward strategies. Climate change and global warming, together with international competition, have been used as the key arguments for constructing artificial snowmaking facilities, as well as for extending existing ski runs and opening new ones in high-alpine regions (at above 3000 m).

The tourism representatives all agree that winter sports can only survive in the Alps if snow-reliability is guaranteed. Precisely, the smaller ski fields at lower altitudes either have their hands bound or can scarcely finance the necessary investments (e.g. snow cannons, levelling out ski slopes, opening higher-altitude chambers in skiing areas). On the one hand, they do not have financial resources of their own, and on the other hand, banks are (now) only prepared to grant very restrictive loans to ski resorts at altitudes below 1500 m, which are not particularly profitable. Nevertheless, the representatives believe that smaller ski fields in the Alpine foothills play a key role in promoting the importance of skiing. Opinions frequently differ a great deal, however, on whether non-profitable ski regions of this type should be retained and how their financing can be guaranteed. While a number of people are in favour of dismantling non-profitable cable-way and ski-lift operations and regard a certain ‘healthy shrinkage' of the sector as necessary, others believe that there is an obligation to retain these ski fields for regional economic reasons. This is also increasing pressure for cableway companies to receive subsidies.

5. Strategies

Climate change represents a new challenge for tourism, and particularly for winter tourism in mountain areas. It is not, however, the case that tourism's initial position will undergo a sudden, radical change. Instead, climate change has to be viewed as a catalyst that will reinforce and accelerate the pace of structural change in the tourist industry and more clearly highlight the risks and opportunities inherent in tourist developments even now. The emergence of a 2-tier society in the winter tourism sector – a few resorts and cableway-companies at a high profit and most resorts and companies unprofitable - will not be due to climate change alone, but to the general change in a competitive market as well. On the one hand, we have the top resorts with their already varied and attractive offers and high snow-reliability and, on the other hand, we have the smaller locations with their less-extensive developments, less-refined offers and restricted opportunities for further development.

Since climate change is a relatively long-term development in comparison to other trends in tourism, tourism managers and tourists will have every opportunity to adjust to the different constraints and adopt the corresponding strategies and measures (fig. 1). One of the most familiar measures in the struggle against snow-deficient winters is the construction of high cost artificial snowmaking facilities.

Adopting a fatalistic attitude towards climate change and its impacts should not be considered as a true strategy in this respect. Such attitudes are manifested by the fact that neither suppliers nor consumers alter their behaviour. This could also be described by using the term ‘business as usual'. Another approach that can be classified under the heading of ‘fatalism' is when tourist transport facilities that were used for winter sports are closed down and dismantled without any attempt at promoting and reinforcing other types of tourism – in other words, when withdrawal from ski tourism is not actively planned. A fatalistic attitude of this type is most readily evident amongst the operators of small, isolated ski-lifts at lower altitudes who experienced severe financial difficulties as a result of the snow-deficient winters.

Figure 1 : Adaptation strategies

6. Conclusions

Global warming is a challenge for the tourism industry in mountain areas. But warmer temperatures and a longer summer season are of minor importance. Over all, climate change is a threat for mountain tourism due to less snow, less glaciers, but more extreme events (e.g. landslides).

Winter tourism depends on good snow conditions and is highly sensitive to snow-deficient winters. Climate research findings show that there will be an increase in the number of winters with little snow on account of climate change. The tourism representatives will not just sit back idly in the face of climate change. They are reacting to the deteriorating snow conditions and the changes in demand. Technical measures, especially artificial snowmaking, to maintain ski tourism rank at the forefront. Tourists demand good snow conditions, and hence, this is what has to be offered by the ski resorts. In any case, the impacts of climate change will involve significant costs for tourism. One of the most important questions will be, how young people would start skiing/snowboarding, if there is only little snow in the big towns and if the little and cheap ski lifts for families at small distances to these towns will be dismantled due to climate change. Although indoor skiing is a growing industry in European towns, it is uncertain that indoor ski domes can replace the role of little ski resorts for beginners in the foothills.

As a sector of the economy that is severely affected by climate change, however, tourism needs to focus more on mitigation strategies in its own best interests. This holds particularly true for the traffic generated by national and international tourism and, above all, for air traffic. Tourist development and tourist projects not only need to be verified and evaluated in terms of their social and environmental compatibility but must also be assessed from the climate-compatibility angle.

Literature

Breiling M et al. (1999) : The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing. In : Regional Environmental Change, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 4-14.

Buerki R (2000) : Klimaaenderung und Anpassungsprozesse im Wintertourismus. Ostschweizerische Geographische Gesellschaft NF H. 6, St. Gallen.

IPCC (2001) : 3^rd Assessment Report. www.ipcc.ch

Koenig U (1998) : Tourism in a Warmer World - Implications of Climate Change Due to Enhanced Greenhouse Effect for the Ski Industry in the Australien Alps. Wirtschaftsgeographie und Raumplanung Vol. 28, University of Zurich.

Scott D. et al. (2003) : Climate change and the skiing industry in southern Ontario (Canada). In : Climate Research, vol. 23, no. 2, p. 171-181.

SLF (Eidg Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung) (2000) : Der Lawinenwinter 1999 – Ereignisanalyse. Davos.